Additional investments in existing net-zero emissions scenarios for Belgium: a comparative analysis
As a member of the European union, Belgium’s contribution to transition towards a net-zero GHG emissions EU by 2050 hinges on significant changes in investment patterns. Not only the level but also the nature of investments is expected to change. Assessing the necessary investment requirements for decarbonizing the economy is crucial for understanding the macroeconomic impact of the climate transition in Belgium and to inform the societal and policy debate.
This report compares the currently available net-zero transition scenarios published in the last years by both public and private authors in Belgium. These scenarios were developed within their technological and regulatory contexts. As this context is constantly evolving, for instance following the 2025 federal government agreement, other scenarios may be proposed in the future by different authors and could usefully be added to an update of this study.
The different scenarios showcase possible transition pathways or orientations. These pathways reflect important strategic choices that are yet to be made by policymakers. The study identifies the major orientation choices and evaluates their relative investment needs as well as their recurrent costs/savings implications.
A common feature among the scenarios across all sectors is the use of numerous energy efficiency levers (such as building insulation and heat pump installation) and the adoption of non-fossil energy, primarily through electrification (vehicles, heat pumps, renewable energy sources, and the strengthening of electricity grids). However, these scenarios differ significantly in their reliance on moderating the growth of or even reducing certain activity volumes, such as new constructions or the number of kilometers traveled in personal vehicles (e.g., increased use of carpooling or public transportation), or shifting certain activities (e.g., modal shift).